Solvay: Look for adj. EBITDA of €181m; H2 increasingly demanding

Research evidence excerpt

Solvay: Look for adj. EBITDA of €181m; H2 increasingly demanding

Barclays | Solvay

earnings, consensus still assumes 47% of full-year EBITDA will be delivered in H2 above the

historic average of 40%. We view this as demanding given we believe underlying demand

trends in Solvay's end markets remain subdued. The same remains true at the Group level

with consensus attributing 49% adj. EBITDA to H2 estimates versus historic averages for

45%.

• Sadara restart assumptions may prove optimistic. Consensus appears to be broadly

reflecting a ~€10m EBITDA headwind from the peroxide outage in Q2 correctly and assumes a

partial recovery during Q3 (€6m headwind YoY) with no impact into Q4 (€229m in Q4 2025

versus Bloomberg forecasts for €230m in Q4 2026). We believe expectations around the

timing of recovery may be optimistic. Given the scale and complexity of the Sadara chemical

complex, a restart and subsequent ramp-up of Solvay's site are unlikely to be instantaneous.

With no evidence of operations having resumed as we now enter Q3, we would expect

management to remain cautious on the pace of recovery through H2.

Focusing further on Performance Chemicals, we expect any positive earnings momentum

in Coatis to be more than offsetting the pressure from the Sadara peroxide outage. As

management communicated at its sell side event in March, the Middle East disruption has been

helpful for removing Chinese competition in the region and similarly the return of Brazilian

tariffs to ~10-11% having been supporting market conditions versus the start of the year. By

contrast, the peroxide business remains impacted by the shutdown of the Sadara chemical

complex in the Middle East, where Solvay operates a peroxide JV supplying adjacent HPPO

capacity.