SOLVAY : Caught in the crosswinds

Research evidence excerpt

SOLVAY : Caught in the crosswinds

Refinitiv

For clarity, we note below Solvay’s reported EBITDA over the past 5 quarters and the

included one-offs and licences.

Figure 1: Solvay has reported exceptional items in 4 of the 5 last quarters

Solvay reported vs recurring EBITDA

2025 2026

Metric Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2e Q3e Q4e

Underlying EBITDA (Solvay def.) 250 230 232 169 219 185 184 192

Underlying EBITDA (BNPP def.) 240 210 192 169 174 185 184 177

One off & License 10 20 40 45 15

Description Special chem Special chem contract Carbon credit sale n.a. EUR7m favourable n.a. n.a. Peroxide license

favourable patent termination litigation outcome in

outcome Special Chem and

EUR38m carbon rights

sale

Source: BNP Paribas Equity Research estimates, Company information

We reiterate our view (Don't put the cart before the horse) that Solvay will not be able to

repeat the sale of carbon credits.

After reviewing the Annual Reports, it appears the inventory of carbon credits reduced

by €11m between FY23 and FY24. We assume this is to ‘top-up’ the credits Solvay

receive as part of the ETS, given they emit more emissions than credit allocations. 2024

ended the year with €38m of credits on the balance sheet.

Between FY24 and FY25, the inventory of credits fell by €28m. In Q3-25, management

reduced production in Europe in favour of more cost-effective tons in the US. The excess

credits available from lower production in Europe were then sold. Solvay sold €10m of

their carbon rights inventory, resulting in a €40m EBITDA and €50m FCF benefit.

Therefore, €10m is attributed to the sale of carbon credits, and we assume the other

€18m was used to support excess emissions. 2025 ended the year with €10m credits on

the balance sheet.