Germany Blog: From fiscal expansion to investment momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Germany Blog: From fiscal expansion to investment momentum

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Economics Date

Germany 3 July 2026

Germany Blog

From fiscal expansion to investment

momentum

Marc Schattenberg

n About a year ago, the far-reaching reform of Germany’s debt brake and the

Senior Economist

creation of multi-billion-euro special funds marked a historic turning point

+49-69-910-31875

for Germany as an investment location. These measures raised hopes for a

pick-up in public investment and, later, private-sector crowding-in. In Felicitas Henze

particular, order backlogs provided more colour on the investment volumes Economist

still in the pipeline for implementation. +49-69-910-31801

n Although the now clearly expansionary fiscal policy has put public fixed

investment in the spotlight, private investment still accounts for the lion’s

share of aggregate fixed investment, at around 80%. Even so, public

investment should generate positive spillovers and network effects,

thereby supporting the private sector as well.

n Private equipment investment appears to have a solid pipeline, supported

by a sizeable backlog of domestic capital goods orders, PMIs resilient Q2

manufacturing new orders assessment, expanding production capacity,

and a 0.8% m/m rise in domestic capital goods sales in April.

n Together with awarded contracts, planned government spending and a

possible easing of global tensions, fixed investment could gain momentum

in H2 2026 and rise almost 4% in 2027. Combined with support from

government consumption, this underpins our GDP growth forecast of 1.3%

for 2027, following 0.5% in 2026.

About a year ago, the far-reaching reform of Germany’s debt brake and the creation

of multi-billion-euro special funds marked a historic turning point for Germany as an