Global Fixed Income Weekly: Strategy Update

Research evidence excerpt

Global Fixed Income Weekly: Strategy Update

3 July 2026

Global Fixed Income Weekly

more informal, e.g., comments from Chair Powell during press conferences about

the likelihood of a policy adjustment at the next FOMC meeting, though the

FOMC statement has also often contained a tightening or easing bias. Warsh may

object to this micro-managing of near-term market expectations, which

reinforces the hall of mirrors and can risk impairing credibility and injecting

unnecessary volatility when conditions evolve in a way contrary to the guidance.

What we expect: If Warsh’s first meeting was a good gauge, we should not expect

meaningful forward guidance from the Fed under his leadership.

The SEP and dot plot: reform and repeal

Given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, a natural question is whether he will

seek to reduce the influence of its primary vehicle, the dot plot within the SEP, or

even eliminate it entirely. At his first meeting, Warsh did not submit forecasts for

the SEP, including interest rate projections (dots).

Warsh has highlighted the pitfalls of being locked into a forecast: “Once

policymakers reveal their economic forecast, they can become prisoners of their

own words.” While this suggests he might support paring back the SEP, a full

repeal of those forecasts and its rate projections would mark a substantial about-

face on transparency that would likely struggle to gain the support of the

Committee as it is currently constituted. Warsh made clear that changes to the

SEP will be a Committee decision.

Instead, we see a path toward reforming the dot plot to reduce its influence.

Plausible options include:

1. Report Central Tendency: Rather than providing the full dot plot with

individual projections or featuring the median projection in the summary