TD Cowen's Biotech Thermometer

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen's Biotech Thermometer

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

July 1, 2026

■Biotechnology TD Cowen's Biotech Thermometer

TD Cowen Biotechnology Team THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1010

Our Biotech Thermometer is intended to provide clients with a view on institutional investor

biotechteam@tdsecurities.com

sentiment toward the biotechnology sector, individual stocks, and upcoming events. We

believe a better understanding of sentiment can facilitate a more effective investment

strategy. The views expressed are based upon the team's interactions with investors during the

month of June.

June began with fears that the old adage of "sell in May and go away" was once again

going to apply to biotech during the summer of 2026. Though there was a large amount of

clinical data at medical meetings and no shortage of good news, biotech stocks were not

reacting well. Few seemed to benefit from the updates, with many trading off after releasing

reasonably strong datasets. Specialists were frustrated and nervous at the end of the late-

Spring medical meetings.

Nonetheless, those who persisted were rewarded by a late-quarter rally. The reason for the

bounce is not entirely clear, but could be related to the FDA's revision of some controversial

decisions following the departures of Makary and Prasad (e.g. QURE), some high-profile M&A

(e.g. APGE), or increasing risk tolerance as the war in Iran is seemingly winding down. The

movement of money into biotech drove outperformance of the NBI and XBI compared to the

broader market indices for the month. As the quarter ended the NBI approached its all-time

closing high ($6,564.90) and the XBI was at 5-year highs.

Following a strong first half of stock performance, biotech investors are engaged and