Upcoming Swedish reporting season: ahead of Q2

Research evidence excerpt

Upcoming Swedish reporting season: ahead of Q2

Equity Research - 5 July 2026 22:31 CEST

Upcoming Swedish reporting season: ahead of Fast comment: Strategy Comments

Q2

• 14% EBIT growth expected for both 2026 and 2027. Small positive

EPS revisions last 3m

• Still the case that earnings revisions correlate with share price

performance

• Screening on earnings revisions, P/E, EPS growth: 15 highlighted

ideas

2026 and 2027: 14% EBIT growth expected for Sweden

After a fairly undramatic Q1 for the Swedish market (earnings revisions

last 3m, almost unchanged), the market now expects 14% EBIT growth

for both 2026 and 2027. Valuation-wise, the Swedish market has a P/

E (2026e) of 18.4x (17.3x equal weighted (sectors)), compared to a 10-

year average of 16.4x. Highlights: Banks have close to zero earnings

growth expected for 2026 while several other sectors have earnings

growth expectations above 14%, and we notice that several banks have

had positive earnings revisions YTD. If we compare with 2025, the market

expected 12% earnings growth for the beginning of the year, but this was

later revised to close to zero earnings growth by the end of 2025. So far,

we have seen close to unchanged earnings revisions for the Swedish

market over the last 3 months while Europe and the world had better

revisions (helped by AI capex and energy) - an unusually strong start vs.

the normal earnings revisions pattern.

Earnings revisions vs share price performance: a winning

combo

The top 15 companies with the strongest EPS revisions (for 2026e) over

last 3m are on average up by 20% during the same time period, and

the P/E for this cluster of companies is an average of 26x - a sign the

market is prioritising earnings revisions over valuation. The bottom 15