FY3/27 investment focus: awaiting drivers to justify bullish FY3/28 game targets

Research evidence excerpt

FY3/27 investment focus: awaiting drivers to justify bullish FY3/28 game targets

res includes treasury stock plan (MTP), and our focus is particularly on the company’s bullish-looking

Absolute and TOPIX-relative share price forecasts (OP target of ¥68.0b) for the digital (games) business. We assume

that management aims to strengthen its structural earnings base and

grow recurring revenue through repeat sales and live service offerings, but

considering the company’s bullish-looking targets, it is only natural to assume

that Bandai Namco is preparing a major title. We think a new game related

to the Elden Ring IP is most likely since the Elden Ring live-action movie

is scheduled to hit theaters on 3 March 2028. The company may make an

announcement as early as 2H FY3/27, so we will be keeping an eye on

related developments.

WATCH: Our FY3/27–FY3/28 forecastsSenior Analyst Takeshi Koyama

+81 3 6202 8265 takeshi.koyama@mizuho-sc.com We make slight changes to our FY3/27 and FY3/28 forecasts, but leave our

OP estimates unchanged. We have not factored in upside or downside risk

Click here for ESG on factors into our forecasts due to amount of uncertainty. That said, we caution

our entire coverage that Bandai Namco’s 1Q FY3/27 earnings are likely to face tough YoY comps

due to brisk earnings in 1Q FY3/26 mainly driven by the launch of Elden Ring

Nightreign.

MEASURE: Lowering price objective to ¥4,000

Our new price objective (¥4,000) is based on a PER of just under 18x our

FY3/28 EPS estimate. Our target multiple was previously 23x (see our 16

March report), but we now factor in the ongoing pullback for game company

valuations as well as the broader equity market environment.

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