Model Update: A More Conservative Margin Expectation but More Buybacks

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update: A More Conservative Margin Expectation but More Buybacks

C O M PA N Y N O T E

J u l y 1 , 2 0 2 6

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Neutral

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$37.76

We are in the process of our end of quarter reviews where we speak with company TARGET: US$40.00

management, review earnings call transcripts and other news in the quarter. We are Our $40 price target is based upon 10.0x our

lowering our 2Q26E EPS driven by lower margins. Our full year estimates are unchanged. 2027E adjusted EBITDAC per share of $3.98.

Paul Newsome, CFA, CPCU• We are lowering our adjusted EBITDAC margin estimate in 2Q26. We think our Managing Director, Piper Sandler & Co.

previous margin estimate was overly optimistic on property pricing declines. Based on 312 281-3445, paul.newsome@psc.com

what we are hearing from industry sources, we expect property pricing to show continued Cam Bianchi

deceleration which will adversely affect margins. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

612 456-9841, cam.bianchi@psc.com

• We are raising our estimate for buybacks. On May 26th, RYAN announced that Eleanor Nentl

the company bought back $260 million of shares as of May 22nd. The company also Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

612 398-1846, eleanor.nentl@psc.com

announced a new $300 million buyback program. This partially offsets our estimate for

lower margins in 2Q26. Changes Previous Current

Rating — Neutral

Price Tgt US$35.00 US$40.00• We are revising our 2Q26E EPS. We are lowering our 2Q26E EPS to $0.62 from $0.66. FY26E EPS — US$2.06

Our full year estimates are unchanged. We are raising our price target to $40 from $35 FY27E EPS — US$2.30

reflecting higher peer multiples, now 10x EBITDAC, previously ~9x.

Market Cap. (mil) US$10,519.9