Suncorp Group Ltd Model Update: Adjusting earnings for latest guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Suncorp Group Ltd Model Update: Adjusting earnings for latest guidance

Siddharth Parameswaran AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8629 03 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

siddharth.x.parameswaran@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

SUN appears to be in a simplification phase strategically and a

consolidation phase operationally, having sold both the Bank

and the NZ Life business. The sale of the bank has now received

the necessary regulatory approval, removing short-term

uncertainty for the stock, and the expected capital return from

the sale funds should be a near-term positive. Pricing in the

industry remains strong and continues to be a tailwind for

Suncorp, with sticky inflation showing signs of easing. The

lower level of reinsurance for Suncorp relative to IAG means

YTD 1m 3m 12m less earnings certainty, but also allows more opportunity for

Abs 9.6% 12.5% 22.5% -10.2% earnings upside. We have a Neutral rating, noting a slightly

Rel 8.6% 12.2% 20.7% -11.4%

negative recent perils experience.

Company Data

Valuation

Shares O/S (mn) 1,267

52-week range (A$) 21.92-13.80 Our June-27 PT of $19.40 is based on our $19.4 DCF valuation.

Market cap ($ mn) 16,337.20 We assume an equity risk discount rate of 9.5% and include

Exchange rate 1.44 franking credits valued at 70% of face and terminal growth of

Free float (%) 99.7%

3M ADV (mn) 3.72 3.0% in our DCF.

3M ADV ($ mn) 44.8

Volatility (90 Day) 22

Index ASX 100 Performance Drivers

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 5|6|0

Key Metrics (FYE Jun)

A$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E

Financial Estimates

NEP (Premium) 13,190 13,922 14,213 14,805

Reported profit 1,823 1,010 1,376 1,242

Adj. net income 1,556 1,088 1,308 1,320

Adj. EPS 1.25 0.94 1.16 1.18

DPS 1.12 0.68 0.83 0.84