EM Foreign Fund Flows

Research evidence excerpt

EM Foreign Fund Flows

arkets are clearly extremely K-shaped, at least -1.0%-1.5% 10%20%

from a foreign buying perspective, these outflows should theoretically signal -2.0%-2.5% 30%

at least 10-20% outperformance vs DM over the next 12 months. Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25

EM ex China Net Foreign Equity Flows (LHS)

Tech volatility has prompted a search for alternatives, with India ending 12M Fwd EM/DM Price Return (RHS, inverted)

the month with ~3% outperformance and up 7% from the lows in early Source: Bloomberg; Macquarie Global Strategy

June (still down 27% YTD and ~50% since Jan'25). There was also a relative

pick-up in the Philippines (up 10% vs MXEF) and a modest rebound in EM ex-China vs DM Performance

Thailand and Turkey. There was no respite for Indonesia though, with its 140.0 EM ex China vs DM

weight dwindling into irrelevance (down another 8% in June and 54% YTD). 130.0

However, given the weight of Korea and Taiwan (~50%) - focused almost 120.0

entirely on just three stocks - any attempt at diversification was extremely 110.0

hard and, in most cases, unproductive. The relative outperformance by 100.090.0

Korea/Taiwan slowed significantly in June. But this was still enough to 80.0

ensure that EM and EM ex-China performed broadly in line with DMs, Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 Feb-24 May-24 Aug-24 Nov-24 Feb-25 May-25 Aug-25 Nov-25 Feb-26 May-26

implying ~9% outperformance in 2Q and ~13% YTD, and ~27% ex-China. EM ex China vs DM

Unfortunately, MXCN did not truly reflect dynamics of China's technology Source: Bloomberg; Macquarie Global Strategy

(e.g.