Kongsberg Gruppen-US re lls, Europe reshores - BUY-06/29/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Gruppen-US re lls, Europe reshores - BUY-06/29/2026

m) 592

Q2 order estimate of NOK 27bn, which we believe is stale and likely still includes Enterprise value 26e (NOKm) 226,221

KMAR. Free float (%) 50

US inventory depletion positive to European defence, but sector down

European defence primes are down 20% since early March. While peers such as

Total Return Index

RHM have faced company-speciEc setbacks (e.g. the F126 cancellation), we are

surprised by the sector's weakness following the Iran war. At historical

procurement rates, we estimate replenishing key munition inventories will take up 130

to 6-7 years for the US (3-5Y inc. new capacity), and pre-war stockpiles have 120

already proved inadequate. The US has consequently delayed deliveries to 110

several allies (e.g. Patriot to Switzerland), while inventory budgets are expanding 100

beyond historical levels, as illustrated by Germany's JSM follow-on order. We 90

believe the US’ supply constraints reinforce the need for European alternatives, 80

particularly for strike missiles and air defence, where KOG is particularly well 70

positioned. US AMRAAM inventories appear largely unaffected, with ~5-6k AIM- 60

9X and 4-4.5k AIM-120 missiles in stock, suggesting NASAMS deliveries are 50

unlikely to be delayed materially. European NATO sources roughly half of its Jun-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jun-26

defence procurement externally, with the US accounting for ~56% of those Kongsberg Gruppen OSEBX

imports, leaving a multi-year onshoring runway for domestic primes. Source: FactSet

CMD targets support ~NOK 460-550/share, we estimate

We viewed the CMD as a positive catalyst, with sales targets of NOK 100bn by

2029 and NOK 150bn by 2033 exceeding our expectations (we had assumed the