Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: CMD 2026 First Take: 2029 Targets Shy Of Expectations (Revs In-Line, Margin Below), With DD Growth Through 2033

Research evidence excerpt

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: CMD 2026 First Take: 2029 Targets Shy Of Expectations (Revs In-Line, Margin Below), With DD Growth Through 2033

Update

June 10, 2026 06:48 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MKongsberg Gruppen ASA | Europe Marie-Ange Riggio

Equity Analyst

CMD 2026 First Take: 2029 Marie-Ange.Riggio@morganstanley.comRoss Law, CFA +44 20 7677-2003

Ross.Law@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0560

Targets Shy Of Expectations Leonore Pele

Research Associate

Leonore.Pele@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2044

(Revs In-Line, Margin Below),

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG.OL, KOG NO)

Aerospace & Defence | NorwayWith DD Growth Through 2033

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Our view: While its growth ambitions are significant, the 2029 revenue target of Price target NKr 310.00

Shr price, close (Jun 9, 2026) NKr 313.80

NOK 100bn is in line with current VA consensus at ~NOK 99bn. Meanwhile, 52-Week Range NKr 349.81- 187.19

management's EBIT margin ambition of >16% for both 2029 and 2033 is consistent Mkt cap, curr (mn) NKr 276,018

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* NKr (9,811)

with company messaging of limited margin expansion going forward (2025: 15.1%) EV, curr (mn)* NKr 266,429

due to customer mix, which remains well below VA cons expectations of 19.2% for * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

2029. The market may view positively the double-digit topline growth CAGR into

the early 2030s (no VA cons for 2033), although: 1) linear growth from 2029 to

2033 implies a NOK 111bn sales in 2030, which is in line with VA consensus, and 2)

our discussions with investors suggest some expectations were already in the NOK

120-130bn range by 2030. Overall, Kongsberg remains one of the strongest

growth stories in the European defence sector with exposures to priority areas