Saab receives SEK ~47bn submarine order from Poland-06/29/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Saab receives SEK ~47bn submarine order from Poland-06/29/2026

Saab

NEWSFLASH | 29 JUN 2026

Saab receives SEK ~47bn submarine order from Poland

Saab has signed a major contract with Poland for three A26-class submarines, including a comprehensive weapons suite as

well as training and long-term support. The total order value of SEK ~47bn comes in ~80% above our SEK 26bn estimate,

driven primarily by what appears to be a substantial weapons package and an extensive support agreement. While recent

market chatter had pointed to a potential deal size of up to SEK 52bn, we view today’s announcement as materially above

prevailing consensus range. We expect to raise 2028E EBIT by ~5-10% depending on delivery schedule (final deliveries

scheduled during 2038E).

Order details

• Today, Saab signed a contract with the Polish State Treasury Armaments Agency for three A26-type submarines

• The contract also encompasses a weapon package and a training- and support package

• The total order value is SEK ~47bn (~80% above our SEK 26bn estimate)

• Saab will deliver continuously with the final deliveries scheduled during 2038

Conclusion for the share

• Total order value was ~80% above our estimate, attributable to a significant portion of weapon systems alongside training- and support

• While recent market chatter indicated a potential value of up to SEK 52bn, we believe cons had anticipated a range of SEK ~26-30bn

• The richer weapons mix is an additional positive, as these systems typically carry higher margins and create a longer-tail revenue stream

• We expect to raise 2028E EBIT by ~5-10%, depending on delivery timeframe

Thomas Blikstad

+46 72 402 33 94, thomas.blikstad@paretosec.com

For disclosures on relevant definitions, methods, risks, potential conflicts of interests etc.