Transports: Don't Get Too Far Over Your Skis, but We're Ringing the Bell on LTLs

Research evidence excerpt

Transports: Don't Get Too Far Over Your Skis, but We're Ringing the Bell on LTLs

What to Watch in 2Q26 Earnings Season

LTLs (ODFL, SAIA, XPO): After somewhat mixed commentary regarding April during 1Q26

earnings conference calls (ODFL noted sub-seasonal trends, but XPO was more optimistic), May

operational updates were consistently more positive, with some LTLs benefitting from favorable

volume trends (XPO), some from better weight momentum (SAIA), and some with upside across

the board (ODFL). With just a return to “seasonality” in June, we forecast upside to 2Q EPS

estimates for each LTL carrier, and a continuation of the better-than-seasonal trends from May

could drive even greater upside. The weight commentary is interesting as it hurts yield metrics

optically (higher denominator), but it’s more profitable freight and is usually a pre-cursor to more

sustainable volume growth, particularly from industrial customers. June updates on important

weight, shipment, pricing KPIs will go a long way in confirming the early stages of a cyclical

recovery, with 3Q guides on sequential OR patterns likely the most meaningful potential catalyst

to the shares. Per our upgrade of ODFL, SAIA, and XPO today, we would be long the entire

group into 2H26 and highlight ODFL as the stock with the most likely 2Q/3Q upside catalyst.

IMCs (JBHT): Domestic intermodal trends have remained strong across the Class I rail

landscape, and we believe the read-through to JBHT should be favorable as well, with likely

upside to the Load count in 2Q. Management has been clear that any pricing upside from a

stronger TL market and a more supportive bid season will be a 2H26/1H27 event, thus investors

must not get carried away in baking higher yields into 2Q estimates. However, higher fuel prices