Q2 Industrial Preview: After Lagging YTD, What Will Get Industrial to Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Industrial Preview: After Lagging YTD, What Will Get Industrial to Outperform

Real Estate | Industrial

July 01, 2026

Steve Sakwa Q2 Industrial Preview: After Lagging YTD,

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Steve.Sakwa@evercoreisi.com What Will Get Industrial to Outperform in

James Kammert 2H?

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james.kammert@evercoreisi.com ◼ So far in 2026, industrial REITs have lagged with the sector

Michael Griffin, CFA up 8.4% vs a 17.6% gain for the RMZ. While recent

212-752-0886 geopolitical events and volatile oil prices have raised

Michael.Griffin@evercoreisi.com

concerns around supply chain disruptions and inflation, a full

US-Iran resolution would likely support improved industrial

demand. Importantly, the conflict has not appeared to

meaningfully disrupt leasing activity as the post-Liberation

Day shock did last year. We expect healthy Q2 leasing

activity and continued positive net absorption, though

sustained absorption will be necessary for market vacancies

to decline and support accelerating rent growth. With fewer

deliveries expected this year, pricing should gradually

improve, although a meaningful acceleration in rent growth

will likely take time.

◼ Across the traditional industrial REITs, our Q2 FFO

estimates are 100bp below consensus, while our FY26 and

FY27 estimates are relatively in line with consensus. We

made modest estimate and PT revisions as part of this

preview, which are detailed in the note. Additionally, we are

rolling out newly revamped models for REXR & EGP.

◼ For the traditional industrial REITs, we expect earnings calls

to focus on tenant demand and the leasing outlook for 2H26,

including customers' willingness to commit to new space.

Other key topics include supply, development leasing, and

transaction market activity. We will also be listening for