NKE: Believe Quality of Sales Inflect Before Actual Sales; Jury Still Out On Whether Earnings Are Troughing

Research evidence excerpt

NKE: Believe Quality of Sales Inflect Before Actual Sales; Jury Still Out On Whether Earnings Are Troughing

June 30, 2026

Simeon Siegel, CFA simeon.siegel@guggenheimpartners.com NKE: Believe Quality of Sales Inflect Before Actual

212 518 9852 Sales; Jury Still Out On Whether Earnings Are

Jonathan Elias

jonathan.elias@guggenheimpartners.com Troughing

212 381 7573

Daniel Stroller Key Message: Even excluding the meaningful IEEPA tariff recovery, NKE reported a daniel.stroller@guggenheimpartners.com 4Q beat driven by better-than-expected margins (GM, SG&A) and sales across most 929 788 0322

geographies. That said, NKE noted that following a strong March, retail sales began to

Edward Wendel, CFA see a broad-based slowdown in mid-April, leading management to temper near-term

edward.wendel@guggenheimpartners.com sales outlook (1Q guided down L-MSD%) but now expecting GM expansion earlier, in

415 934 8448 1Q vs. 2Q prior. Nike is clearly not yet out of the woods (China, EMEA, Converse etc.

remain questions) but we have always believed that quality of sales inflects before actual

sales, and earlier-than-expected GM expansion may prove a critical leading indicator of

business stabilization, all while the key North America region continues to post topline

growth (along with what we believe sounded like greater management confidence).NKE BUY Bottom line: we assume investors will still question whether Nike has “ripped the band- NIKE, Inc.

Sector: Consumer Discretionary aid” on earnings revisions (we think we’re close… though we have said this earlier) and

after a stretch of meaningful post-EPS downward revisions, we wonder if tonight will

Company Update drive a more muted reaction, further raising questions of potential stabilization ahead.