LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Week Outlook: Macro and Strategy Highlights

Deutsche Bank

Research

Latin America Economics Date

2 July 2026

LatAm Week

Outlook

Macro and Strategy Highlights

Francisco Campos

Market Outlook Chief LatAm Economist

n The ceasefire underpinned by the Memorandum of Understanding +1-212-250-9764

subscribed by the United States and Iran has broadly held despite

continued skirmishes and kinetic exchanges between Israel and Lebanon. Beatriz Garcia Nunes

This backdrop has continued to support the retracement of oil prices. LatAm Economist

Though ebbing, volatility in financial markets has seen occasional upticks +1-212-250-9584

on the back of latent risks to the sustainability of the ceasefire, lingering Christian Gonzalez Rojas

concerns over the technology sector and the outlook for monetary policy in Macro Strategist

the US. +1-212-250-9184

n Recent news that the USMCA treaty won't be renewed and member states Carlos Munoz-Carcamo

will start an annual revision process have not had much market impact, Macro Strategist

given it was mostly priced in since the beginning of the year. We expect +1-212-250-2259

negotiations to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Ongoing

Christian Wietoska

uncertainty would limit MXN appreciation, as it would hinder new

Strategist

investment projects and manufacturing expansion.

+44-20-754-52424

n As we get closer to the elections in Brazil, the market is gradually starting

to react more to polls and political headlines. However, candidate polling

haven’t changed much in the past month or so, with Lula still leading by

6-8pp in a potential runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro.

n On FX, the market darling has been COP. We argued earlier this week that

the currency is pricing in much optimism, and the bar to fulfill expectations