Chemicals: What's Up, What's Down Since the Middle East Conflict Began

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals: What's Up, What's Down Since the Middle East Conflict Began

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Chemicals Chemicals 2 July 2026

What's Up, What's Down Since the Middle

David Begleiter East Conflict Began

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473

Potential opportunities as underlying conditions return to pre-conflict levels

With the Middle East conflict largely over and the Strait of Hormuz opening / Emily Fusco

open, we have looked at the share prices of US and European chemical and Research Associate

+1-212-250-5162 agriculture companies to see how they have performed since the conflict began

4 months ago.

With oil prices slightly below pre-conflict levels and global demand similar to what

it was heading into the conflict (subdued), one could ascribe to the theory that

notwithstanding the significant disruption to energy and chemical production and

exports from the Persian Gulf and spike in oil prices caused by the conflict, not

much has changed since the conflict began in late February, except perhaps

interest rate assumptions. And if that is the case, one could also assume that

shares prices of US and European chemical and agriculture companies should

have largely returned to their pre-conflict levels, or close to them.

While this is the case for some US and European chemical and agriculture

companies, this is not the case for all of them. While some of this can be explained

by idiosyncratic and industry factors (e.g. Air Products and the cancellation of its

Louisiana project; Cabot and heightened interest in their battery materials

business; Electronic material companies (ENTG, ESI, Q) and the AI/Data Center

buildout; housing-related names (SHW, WLK) and the increase in interest rate