More Cowbell: SCOTUS Decisions & Herbal Tea Party - Monthly Wrap-Up & Next

Research evidence excerpt

More Cowbell: SCOTUS Decisions & Herbal Tea Party - Monthly Wrap-Up & Next

TD Securities (USA) LLC DC DOWNLOAD

June 30, 2026

■WRG Washington Strategy More Cowbell: SCOTUS Decisions & Herbal

■WRG Washington Weekly

Tea Party - Monthly Wrap-Up & Next

Chris Krueger THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

202 868 5307 ■SCOTUS: Fed Gov. Cook to remain for now; mail-in ballots postmarked by Election day are

christopher.krueger@tdsecurities.com valid. Birthright ruling today.

■Phase 2 of IEEPA tariff refunds starts (~$30B of $166B); future Sec 301 tariffs (and perhaps

338) likely when Sec 122 expires on Jul 23...watch for 122 tariff refunds

■Recon. 3.0 likely deadline on Jul 23

■Trump at NATO Summit on Jul 7 & World Cup final on Jul 19

Guess what? I got a fever! And the only prescription... is more cowbell!

June saw new tariffs on Brazil, 232 metal tariff carveouts, a proposed 301 tariff replacement

on the expiring Sec 122 tariff (which was the IEEPA replacement), proposed government stakes

in AI companies, $70B reconciliation 2.0 passage and Iran supplement request, Warsh's 1st

FOMC as Chair & the G7 in France, and several midterm primary elections, highlighting the

moderate vs Democratic Socialist battle within the Democratic Party.

July is quiet on the midterm front, with most remaining primaries slated for August and

September.

July is focused on trade with the first trilateral USMCA meeting this week, the 3rd round of

bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico, and the Sec 122 tariff expiration & likely

replacement with Sec 301 (and perhaps 338).

DC Catalyst Calendar for July & Aug

■Jul/Aug: Clarity around Sec 122, 301, 338 & 232 tariffs. 6 open 232 investigations:

❍Commercial Aircraft & Jet Engines

❍Polysilicon (~early August)

❍Drones

❍Wind Turbines

❍Robotics

❍PPE & Med Devices