ASEAN Banks

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Banks

Macquarie Equity Research ASEAN Banks

Selective positioning across ASEAN banks

Our top picks are OCBC, PBK,

and KBANK. Tactically we like • We see the brightest prospects for Singapore and Malaysia financials, with Thailand banks

BCA as monetary conditions pushing wealth franchises to compensate for stagnant balance sheets.

tighten in Indonesia. BDO is • Our top picks are OCBC, PBK, and KBANK. Tactically we like BCA as monetary conditions

well-placed in the Philippines. tighten in Indonesia. BDO is well-placed in the Philippines, but a convincing improvement in

inflation and the FX outlook are necessary, we think, to allow a re-rating.

• Rising rates and tighter monetary conditions would have a mixed impact on the banks

across the region, with pressure on Indonesian banks (limited ability to pass on costs)

and a focus on higher-quality debtors in Thailand (implying lower yields). We expect net

interest margins for Singapore and Malaysia banks to improve in 2026. On average, banks

are focused on improving non-interest income and efficiency.

• Following years of capital optimisation and rising dividends, dividend outlooks are now

mixed. Payout policies are most conducive in Malaysia and Thailand. Payout ratios for the

large state banks in Indonesia would have to normalise to accommodate credit expansion

(assuming no credit risk-weighted asset optimisation).

Fundamentally, Malaysia and Figure 3 - Key drivers for the banks over the next 12 months

Singapore have the best Loan Non Int Cost to Credit

drivers on a 12-month view. 12m outlook for: growth NIM Income Income costs ROE Div payout

Pushing for higher non- Indonesia

interest income (fees) is a Malaysia

recurring trend across most

Philippines

ASEAN-5 banks

Singapore

Thailand

ASEAN-5