Australian Banks

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks

Macquarie Equity Research

30 June 2026

Banks

AustraliaAustralian Banks

Housing credit's swan song

Carlos Victor

Key Points Cacho German

• Industry feedback suggests new lending flows are likely tracking down

20-30% y/y, consistent with a material slowdown in credit growth.

• CBA and NAB have cut mortgage rates by ~10-15bps, suggesting lower JasonShao, CFA

volumes will weigh on bank margins.

• With downside risks to both housing and business credit from policy

changes and a deteriorating macro, lending competition may intensify. Figure 1 - MoM change in mortgage

rates

bps

-• Industry feedback suggests new loan flows tracking down 30%: While

reported housing credit growth remained robust at ~7% annualised in (2)

May, recent feedback from brokers suggests that new lending flows are (4)(6) (5) (5) (3) (5) (3)

tracking down ~20-30% y/y. We estimate that new owner occupiers (8)

flows are down ~10-20% and new investors down as much as ~50%. This (10) (9) (9)

compares with WBC's application volumes tracking down ~20% y/y and (12)

NAB application values down ~15% QoQ. For now, we see this as broadly (14) (13)

consistent with our forecast for housing credit growth to slow to ~3.5% (16)(18) (17)

over 2027 (see How low can (housing credit) go?), but see downside OO P&I Inv P&I Inv IO

risks if the softening housing market further weighs on sentiment. We CBA (70% LVR) CBA (80% LVR) NAB (70% LVR)

continue to see downside risk to consensus forecasts for FY27 housing Source: Smartmove Mortgage Pricing Index, Macquarie

credit growth across the major banks of 4.2% (MRE: 3.1%). Research, June 2026

• Mortgage competition intensifying, led by NAB and CBA: Slowing Reflects 70% LVR.

housing credit growth is likely to see an intensification of mortgage