Black gold

Research evidence excerpt

Black gold

Macquarie Equity Research Xunlong Sci-tech

Executive summary

Caviar market on structural upward trend

Historically, global caviar production relied almost entirely on wild sturgeon, with Russia and

Iran along the Caspian Sea serving as the main production regions. Farmed caviar has since

replaced wild sources and now represents the dominant form of global supply. However,

supply remains structurally constrained by the long aquaculture cycle and high capital

requirements of sturgeon farming.

China is now the leading force in the global caviar market, accounting for approximately

54.0% of global caviar sales volume in 2025.

According to CIC, the global caviar market reached c.808.4 tonnes in 2025 and is projected

to grow to 1,344 tonnes by 2030, implying a 10.7% volume CAGR. Despite this growth,

supply remains well below the historical peak of 1,988 tonnes recorded in 1977, suggesting

continued supply constraints relative to demand.

The European Union, the US and Russia remain the largest traditional consumption markets.

China is the fastest-growing market, supported by rising demand for luxury experiences,

including fine dining and high-end hotels, as well as increasing consumer awareness and

acceptance of caviar through social media and e-commerce channels.

Figure 3 - CIC expects China to lead global carviar Figure 4 - We believe there is still ample upside as

consumption volume growth over the next 5 years global demand is expected to reach 808t in 2025E,

still far below 1,988t in 1977.

tons CAGR 2025~2030E

1600 Overall 10.7% tons

1400 China 19.5% 2,500

EU 8.5%

1200 US 8.8% 1,988

Russia 7.4% 2,000

ROW 13.5%

1343.9

800 1,500

1,000 808.4

200 500

-

China EU US Russia Others

Total

Source: CIC, Macquarie Research, June 2026