Renault SA: H1 preview: All seems on track

Research evidence excerpt

Renault SA: H1 preview: All seems on track

Barclays | Renault SA

partners) should be neutral to positive, FX negative, price-mix-enrichment clearly negative, cost

positive (with the net effect of price-mix-enrichment broadly neutral). Our 2026 FCF forecast is

in line with RNO's guide at €1.0bn with our forecast being split c€450m/€550m for H1/H2.

Overall, we believe RNO is still broadly on track for its FY26 c5.5% EBIT margin guidance as

well as H1 EBIT margin at the bottom end of its mid-term guidance corridor of 5.0-7.0%. But the

sluggish volume growth and negative FX exacerbate the sensitivity to the net effect of price-mix-

enrichment vs cost, especially as the incremental 'Sales to Partners' revenue is guided at

virtually zero EBIT contribution for 2026.

RNO continues to highlight several headwinds for the 2026 EBIT bridge, including FX (more

negative than in FY25), raw materials (roughly double the FY25 amount but in the opposite

direction), strong commercial pressure, margin dilution from more BEVs and international sales

mix, and a negative enrichment impact from regulatory costs. These are expected to be partially

offset by higher volumes, a recovery in high-margin LCVs, and ongoing cost-saving initiatives,

with a meaningful contribution expected from Horse. In addition, no further warranty impact is

assumed, following €-137m in H2’25 and €-160m for FY25. The important net balance of price-

mix-enrichment vs cost was confirmed to remain negative in 2026. All this remains in line with

RNO's original FY26 guidance (with some downside risk to volume given sluggish results

YTD, especially at Dacia which is also under-indexed to recently strong BEV growth in

Europe).

Investment case unchanged vs recent update: OW. PT €31.5. We believe investor concerns