Renault SA: Model update and recap: Strong bones, but no real catalysts - unless M&A or IAA

Research evidence excerpt

Renault SA: Model update and recap: Strong bones, but no real catalysts - unless M&A or IAA

Barclays | Renault SA

almost 100% of 2026 group EBIT for the cumulated 2026-28 savings target; before headwinds

such as price-mix-enrichment and inflation; see Figure 4).

Further positives include the strong mid-term FCF yield of c15% on our numbers, almost 10%

2027 dividend yield on our numbers, and an inexpensive SOTP screening, with headline net

cash, Nissan stake, F1 team value and FinCo book value implying a strongly negative stub value

for, in our view, a pretty solid Automotive business (see Figure 7).

But overall, we think it will be difficult to see positive earnings revisions or a positive re-

rating for RNO near-term, unless it was to 1/ crystallize value through the

further (part-)disposal and shareholder return of its Nissan stake (see Renault Universal

Registration Document 2025 for 'reduction of retention threshold to provide flexibility in

managing the holding') and/or Alpine F1 team stake (see Sky Sports; 13 March 2026; Team

principal confirms 'three or four contenders' for Alpine F1 team buy-in) - although the company

has made no comment regarding these potential disposals - or 2/ a favourable update with

respect to EU Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) regulation that would help to alleviate market

concerns around tougher competition from Chinese imports into RNO's core segments in

Europe. Longer term, if RNO was to fully execute on its cost-savings targets, this would very

likely drive earnings upgrades, unless headwinds are even greater than currently anticipated by

the market - but we do not expect this to drive earnings revisions until H1 2027 at the earliest.

As such, on balance, we retain our OW rating, but cut the PT to €31.5 (from €42.5), implying