Galderma Group AG "Sensitivity to Relfydess US approval, 2Q26 expectations"

Research evidence excerpt

Galderma Group AG "Sensitivity to Relfydess US approval, 2Q26 expectations"

2Q/1H26 results preview

UBS expectation: Positive

Galderma will report 2Q26 sales and 1H26 earnings on 23 July 2026. UBS expectations

relative to VA consensus are set out in Figure 4. For 2Q26, we note that UBS sales

forecasts are in line with VA consensus, but with Injectable Aesthetics 2% below and

Nemluvio 5% ahead of consensus. UBS forecast are 2 and 3% ahead of consensus on

1H26 Core EBITDA and Core Net Income respectively.

What to watch

We see a number of key focus topics for 2Q/2H results:

Unwind of 1Q Injectable Aesthetics stocking. On its 1Q call, Galderma

management flagged that some of the outperformance in Injectable Aesthetics

performance was driven by stocking of both Fillers and Neuromodulators. As

guided at the time, and reiterated on our recent CFO roadshow, we expect this to

unwind at 2Q. We expect continued underlying strong demand trends to

continue.

Annualising China Sculptra launch. In April 2025, Galderma launched Sculptra

in China. The company has subsequently characterised the launch as the most

successful single-country injectable aesthetics launch ever. While Sculptra sales are

not separated within Fillers & Biostimulators, we assume that Sculptra China has

been a significant contributor to F&B growth in the last 12 months. While we

expect China demand to continue, we assume note that the base effect will

annualise out as of 2Q26. We assume that this will moderate filler/biostim growth

rates further in 2Q.

Strong US Nemluvio demand with no material step change in gross-to-net.

UBS Evidence Lab Formulary Coverage data (Figure 7,8) highlights that there has

been no major additional Medicare plan coverage added during 2Q. This is likely to