European Integrated Energy: Shell LNG Outlook 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Integrated Energy: Shell LNG Outlook 2026

S has become the world's largest LNG

exporter and remains the dominant source of new supply growth. By the 2030s, total US LNG

supply may exceed total Atlantic Basin LNG demand. As a result, a growing proportion of US

cargoes will need to move to Asian markets, increasing shipping requirements and

strengthening the linkage between North American gas markets and global LNG pricing

dynamics.

Europe reliance on LNG has increased since 2022: Europe's LNG role continues to evolve

following the decline of Russian pipeline gas imports. LNG imports reached record levels in 2025

at approximately 125Mt, helping offset reductions in pipeline supply and supporting regional

energy security. The US has simultaneously become increasingly important to Europe's gas

balance. The outlook sees the percentage share of the European market for US LNG increasing

to around 25% this year, while around 70% of US LNG exports have recently been directed to

European markets.

China becomes the market's primary balancing mechanism: China remains one of the

world's largest LNG importers, and the country's market has increasingly balanced LNG demand

against growth in domestic gas production and pipeline imports. China's market has grown

substantially, with gas demand increasing by 100bcm over the last five years, which is

equivalent to the size of the German and Spanish markets combined. However, domestic

production and pipeline supplies have grown substantially over recent years, limiting LNG

import growth during periods of market tightness. The expansion of domestic production and

imports through the Power of Siberia pipeline system has reduced China's dependence on spot

LNG purchases and increased flexibility within its gas balance.