Berkeley Group (1K) | Reduce (vs Hold) | Too premium for today's context

Research evidence excerpt

Berkeley Group (1K) | Reduce (vs Hold) | Too premium for today's context

#RatingChange

Release date: 30 June 2026

Company research

Reduce (Hold)Berkeley Group

United Kingdom | Constr., Infra & Materials Beta Profile: MCap: GBP3.5bn

Target Price: 3100p (3900.00) Change in TP: -20.5 % Bloomberg: BKG LN Reuters: BKGH.L

Current Price: 3542.00p Change in Sales: -10.3% 27E/-20.0% 28E Free float 100%

Up/downside: -12.5% Change in Adj EBIT: -17.0% 27E/-28.6% 28E Avg. daily volume (GBPm) 2,159.4

YTD abs performance -9.3% Market data: 29 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -13.9% 27E/-24.5% 28E

52-week high/low (GBP) 4434.00/3104.00

Too premium for today's context Price performance

Why this report?

The recent rebound in mortgage rates, weaker demand, and the still

challenging environment in London and the South East lead us to adopt a

more conservative view on volumes and selling prices. As a result, we cut our

FY 2027-31 revenue forecast by 22%, which, together with renewed build cost

inflation, reduces earnings by more than 30%. We do not expect Berkeley's

balance sheet to come under pressure, given its cautious land investment

strategy and our lower assumptions for shareholder remuneration. These

factors lead us to cut our TP by 21% to 3,100p, from 3,900p. Since the start of

the Middle East conflict, Berkeley has been the least penalised stock in our

coverage, which we believe reflects its high-end customer base and lower

sensitivity to mortgage rates. However, the company has acknowledged that

customer interest has moderated in recent months, while the outlook for FY to 30/04 (GBP) 04/27E 04/28Ena

London and the South East remains challenging. We believe the share price Sales 2,121 1,922 na

EBITDA adj. 373 341 na