Berkeley Group Holdings PLC: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Berkeley Group Holdings PLC: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (BKGH.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Apr 2026 Apr 2027e Apr 2028e Apr 2029e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

04 Sep 2026 -

Volume Growth (%) 1 (20) (1) (1) Berkeley Group Holdings PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting

08 Sep 2026

U/L nominal newbuild house price

2 2 2 2

growth (mkt avg) (%)

Overall change in ASP (%) (8) 6 0 3

Build cost inflation YoY (%) 4 3 3 3

Gross margin (%) 25 25 25 25

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

London house price growth RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Apr 2027e

Newbuild volume growth House prices and economic growth surprise to

Construction cost growth the upside Sales / 1,988

Currency/UK GDP growth outlook Supportive policy backdrop such as 'Help to Revenue 1,932 2,366

Buy' expansion and favourable permitting (£, mn) 2,087

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE legislation

Interest rate cuts

Stronger than expected demand from overseas EBIT

investors (£, mn) 336 450

100% UK 382

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

House prices and economic growth surprise to

282.2

the downside EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 263.8 339.0

Interest rate hikes (p)View explanation of regional hierarchies here Increase in post completion liabilities 296.1

Lack of demand from overseas investors

MS ALPHA MODELS

DPS

200.0 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (p) 89.1 2/5 3 Month 128.4

MOST Horizon Inst. Owners, % Active 83.3%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored HF Sector Net Exposure 7.6% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Quintile

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB.