dbDataInsights: Gulf shipping tracker & global response

Research evidence excerpt

dbDataInsights: Gulf shipping tracker & global response

ponsibility. The IMO estimated (Friday) - Despite a framework agreement signed on 26 June,

80 mines remain on the route historically used by ships between Israel and Lebanon to "conclusively end the

transiting the SoH. conflict" between them, fighting in the area continues, with

Hezbollah rejecting the agreement. - Energy markets have responded quickly to the MoU, with

crude oil prices yesterday (as at 10PM UK) hovering around - Following a period of further hostilities in the 2nd half of last

$70 / bbl (vs. close of ~$85 in the week preceding the MoU). week and over the weekend, which saw Iran strike two

Meanwhile, oil held in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve commercial vessels over control of SoH transits, on Monday

fell by a further 5.5mn barrels last week to reach the lowest the US and Iran agreed to “stand down” and pause attacks.

level since May 1983.

- US officials stated this would allow for further talks this

- Despite the fall in energy prices, Bundesbank President week, though there are conflicting reports. Trump claimed

Nagel said he suspects the “inflation rate will stay talks were scheduled for yesterday in Doha. Qatar said the

significantly above our target” for the foreseeable future, talks would be between the US and mediators. Iran said it

describing the energy price shock as “still in the system”. was meeting Qatar to discuss frozen funds and that it will

More broadly, our (DB) analysis is consistent with a not meet with the US until all MoU points have been upheld.

cumulative consumer price level increase in the range of

- A major sticking point in negotiations will be control over 0.5-1.5 percentage points globally under a constructive

the SoH.