European Steel : EU trade protection: Country quotas released

Research evidence excerpt

European Steel : EU trade protection: Country quotas released

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

North America 1 July 2026

European Steel

Steel Industry Update

Steel

EU trade protection: Country quotas

released

Bastian Synagowitz

EU steel safeguards: Country-specific quotas signal more orderly start than Research Analyst

feared +41-44-227-3377

Today, the EU released the initial details for the new steel safeguards that begin

tomorrow (link), importantly including country-specific quotas from the outset. Liam Fitzpatrick

Research Analyst

This is a positive development, countering press articles last week that suggested

+44-20-754-13233

the system might begin with global quotas per product open to all trading partners

until country quotas were finalised. Such a scenario had raised market concerns Cody Hayden

about a potential "rush" as countries competed to fill the global quota early. Instead, Research Analyst

the framework announced today appears to be a more orderly process, and should +44-20-754-13230

not only constrain import market share but also rebalance the market share among Amartya Ghosal

importers towards established trade partners. As discussed earlier, this policy Research Associate

should be a significant game-changer for the European steel sector. Although

demand remains soft and prices have declined from stronger-than-expected levels

earlier in the year heading into the weaker summer period, we expect prices to

rebound once seasonal demand comes back and excess inventory has been

absorbed.

This environment should benefit all EU steel companies, with ArcelorMittal and

Salzgitter (both Buy-rated) having the highest beta and leverage to a EU rebound.

Given the softer summer seasonality, our top picks continue to be Voestalpine