Steel Spread Tracker: US price strength continues

Research evidence excerpt

Steel Spread Tracker: US price strength continues

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

18 May 2026

Steel Steel Spread

Steel Periodical

Tracker

US price strength continues

Bastian Synagowitz

Trade policy supports Western market prices, demand remains key concern Research Analyst

The recent dynamics in the Middle East have started to weigh on sentiment and +41-44-227-3377

negative impact to demand remains the main concern in the near term.

Liam Fitzpatrick

Nevertheless, Western prices and margins have been firm so far and the EU's plans Research Analyst

for a significant step-up in trade protection should ultimately support a sustained +44-20-754-13233

rebound in European spreads, and the impact from CBAM adds to that. Hence, we

Cody Hayden

keep our constructive view on the sector. Our top picks in carbon steel are:

Research Analyst

Voestalpine (VOES.VI; Buy; EUR44.78; TP: EUR57), which remains the most solid

+44-20-754-13230

equity story, based on steady FCF generation (despite peak decarb capex), self-help

and an undervalued rail-infrastructure business; and thyssenkrupp (TKAG.DE, Buy;

EUR10.64; TP: EUR14.50) on possible catalysts and policy tailwinds in steel. We

Figure 1: HRC prices

recently upgraded the stock (link). In stainless steel, we prefer Acerinox (ACX.MC;

Buy; EUR14.51; TP: EUR16), based on its exposure to the attractive US market and 2,400USD/t German American Chinese exports Italian

its solid cash returns. We also continue to like Aperam (APAM.AS; Buy; EUR47.50; 2,200

2,000

TP: EUR65), based on its reversion potential and organic growth prospects, coupled 1,800

with its strong mid-cycle FCF-generating ability and shareholder returns. 1,600

1,400

1,200

European HRC prices broadly stable in domestic currency, spreads down 1,000800