Data Flash: Japan: June Tankan survey

Research evidence excerpt

Data Flash: Japan: June Tankan survey

Deutsche Bank Group

Research

Japan Economics Date

Japan 1 July 2026

Data Flash

Japan: June Tankan survey

Kentaro Koyama, Ph.D.

Business sentiment beats expectations, rising price pressures support faster BoJ Chief Economist

rate hikes +81-3-6730-0683

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) June 2026 Tankan survey, released today, confirmed the

resilience of the Japanese economy, with business sentiment improving more than

the market expected and capex plans showing strength. Notably, the output (sales)

price diffusion index (DI) reached a record high, highlighting firms' growing

willingness to pass on costs. As we expected, this points to mounting inflationary

pressures ahead and reinforces our view that the BoJ is likely to accelerate the pace

of its interest rate hikes.

Business conditions: A stronger-than-expected improvement led by the AI sector

The business conditions DI ("Favorable" minus "Unfavorable") for large

manufacturers in the June survey improved by 5 points from the previous survey

(March) to +22, while the DI for large non-manufacturers improved by 1 point to

+37. The large manufacturers' DI significantly surpassed the market consensus of

+16 and matched our forecast of +22. The large non-manufacturers' DI also

showed a strong result, exceeding both the consensus forecast of +36 and our own

forecast of +33. Consequently, the business conditions DI for large enterprises

across all industries reached +29, marking the highest level since 1991, during the

latter part of the bubble economy era.

In contrast, among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the improvement

in the manufacturing sector was more modest than for large firms, while the non-

manufacturing sector saw a slight deterioration. This indicates that the divergence