HC Supply Chain Tracker: May Growth Sees Slight Bounceback vs. Apr

Research evidence excerpt

HC Supply Chain Tracker: May Growth Sees Slight Bounceback vs. Apr

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 29, 2026

■Health Care Technology & Distribution: HC Supply Chain Tracker: May Growth Sees

Drug Distributors

Care Technology & Distribution: Slight Bounceback vs. Apr■Health

Drug Retailers

■Health Care Technology & Distribution:

PBMs

Specialty Pharmacy

Charles Rhyee THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1376

May sales growth improved relative to Apr. (weak comp), however, remained soft. Total sales

charles.rhyee@tdsecurities.com

grew 7%/13% ex-IRA, ~100-150bps softer vs. 1Q. Specialty sales grew 11%/14% ex-IRA in May,

Lucas Romanski w/ Med spec. sales up 14%/15%. Utilization trends, particularly in oncology, is driving some

646 562 1352 pressure for distributors, particularly MCK/COR. White-bagging increasingly a focus for PBMs

lucas.romanski@tdsecurities.com

and specialty pharmacies.

Data Highlights

While May data is an improvement over a softer Apr. (weak Y/Y comp), investor concerns

around utilization deceleration persists, despite total sales growth ex-IRA still tracking at low-

double digit clip (vs. mid-teens in '25).

■May sales grew 6.7% Y/Y, or +13% ex-IRA drugs. Apr./May Y/Y growth was 6% and 13% ex-

IRA, which was 100-150bps softer than 1Q growth.

■Specialty sales in May grew +11%, or +14% (vs. 9%/12% in Apr.). Apr/May Y/Y specialty sales

growth was 10%, or +13% ex-IRA, below 1Q growth of 12%/15%. 2-yr stack growth ex-IRA, was

14% for Apr/May, generally consistent w/ avg. over prior 8 quarters (15%).

■Medical benefit specialty sales grew 14% in May (vs. 12% in Apr.), and 15% ex-IRA. Apr/May

Y/Y Med. specialty sales growth was +13%, or +14% ex-IRA. Provider oncology specialty sales

grew 12% in May. Excluding Keytruda sales (down 2.2% Y/Y in May), provider onc.