Upgrading to Hold: Operational Improvements in A Time of Margin Strength

Research evidence excerpt

Upgrading to Hold: Operational Improvements in A Time of Margin Strength

Refining & Marketing

PBF Energy

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC RATING CHANGE

June 29, 2026

Price: $43.11 (06/26/2026) Upgrading to Hold: Operational

Price Target: $39.00 (Prior $36.00) Improvements in A Time of Margin Strength

HOLD (2)

FROM SELL (3)

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1309

We are upgrading PBF to Hold with a $39 PT. The company is coming out of a difficult

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

operational stretch at a time margins are robust, while it enjoys the most earnings leverage

Anthony Petrino to refining cracks in the peer group. It should generate $2B FCF through the remainder of this

646 562 1364 year, enabling deleveraging and stronger cash generation in future years.

anthony.petrino@tdsecurities.com

Will Avila Upgrade to Hold, $39 PT

646 562 1344

We are upgrading PBF to Hold given a more constructive near-term refining outlook combinedwill.avila@tdsecurities.com

with an embedded assumption of more stable operations that should enable deleveraging

Jeremy Meanwell over the next 3 quarters. We base our valuation on an NPV of FCF to 2027 with 2027 as a

646 562 1374

terminal valuation year, using a 10% discount rate.

jeremy.meanwell@tdsecurities.com

Expect Better Operations Ahead

Key Data

Symbol NYSE: PBF PBF has struggled to generate materially positive FCF ex-WC in a quarter since 3Q23. It

Beta: 0.11 generally needs high margins and/or wide crude diffs to cover its high opex, which it did not

52-Week Range: $51.23-$21.67 have in 2024, while 2025 was impacted by unplanned downtime at Martinez. It also has had

Market Cap: $5.1B a couple of elevated years of planned maintenance. The company has indicated Martinez is