Will Volatile Ops Normalize Into Stronger Earnings Environment? - 1Q26 Recap

Research evidence excerpt

Will Volatile Ops Normalize Into Stronger Earnings Environment? - 1Q26 Recap

Refining & Marketing

PBF Energy

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC EARNINGS UPDATE

May 14, 2026

Price: $42.43 (05/12/2026) Will Volatile Ops Normalize Into Stronger

Price Target: $36.00 Earnings Environment? - 1Q26 Recap

SELL (3)

ESG SCORE: 54/100

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1309

PBF reported results April 30. It suffered minor refinery outages since then, with impacts we

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

believe are contained. We expect PBF underlying cash generation to materially improve after

Will Avila multiple quarters of weak cash flow, while insurance proceeds and working capital reversals

646 562 1344 should help. However, continued ops challenges make the equity a more volatile way to gain

will.avila@tdsecurities.com

exposure to strong cracks

Anthony Petrino

646 562 1364 Maintain Sell, $36 PT

anthony.petrino@tdsecurities.com

Net debt rose for the seventh time out of the past eight quarters, with recent results impacted

Key Data by turnarounds and the unplanned Martinez incident (earning's quick take here). Martinez may

Symbol NYSE: PBF

be back to full rates after another minor delay pushed full rates expected immediately after

Beta: 0.14 earnings. There was a separate incident at Chalmette, though this appears contained to a

52-Week Range: $51.23-$17.94 20kbd gasoline-making unit. The continued operational challenges make the equity a more

Market Cap: $5.0B volatile way to gain exposure to strong cracks, despite its beta to said cracks.

Net Debt (MM): $3,059.8

PBF should see a large part of its $340MM working capital outflow unwind while it should

Cash/Share: $(5.38)

receive incremental insurance proceeds. PBF targets debt at early 2025 levels, which should

Dil.