Department Stores: June Dept Store Sales: Weather Impact Significant, But No Impression of Marked Shift in Consumer Sentiment

Research evidence excerpt

Department Stores: June Dept Store Sales: Weather Impact Significant, But No Impression of Marked Shift in Consumer Sentiment

Update

July 1, 2026 10:32 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MDepartment Stores | Japan Ai Furukawa

Equity Analyst

June Dept Store Sales: Weather Ai.Furukawa@morganstanleymufg.comHiroshi Koba +81 3 6836-5461

Hiroshi.Koba@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8942

Impact Significant, But No

Impression of Marked Shift in

Consumer Sentiment Department Stores

Japan

While there was some retracement in the wake of strong Industry View In-Line

summer demand in May, the overall picture was that weather Exhibit 2 : Mean temperatures (Tokyo, °C)

conditions in the latter half of the month weighed on ℃ 2026

35.0 2025

performance. On a combined May-June basis, there is no strong Normal Value

impression that the underlying trend has changed. 30.0

June weather conditions: Average temperature in the Tokyo area was 0.4°C

25.0

lower than normal and 3.2°C below June last year. Day-of-week impact was

approximately -1ppt. We infer there was also some payback from robust summer 20.0

demand in May. High-priced items remained strong even in poor weather, continuing

to grow +20-40% across companies. Duty-free sales increased YoY, but this was 15.0

1-Jun 15-Jun 29-Jun 13-Jul 27-Jul

significantly influenced by the weak base due to special factors in the prior year.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency, Morgan Stanley Research

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings: Existing stores nationwide +5.6% (domestic +1.9%,

duty-free +33.3%), 3 flagship stores +10.2% (domestic +5.9%, duty-free +32.9%). J.

Front Retailing: Daimaru Matsuzakaya department stores (in-store) +0.4%

(domestic -3.0%, duty-free +23.3%), or +4.7% excluding the Umeda store undergoing

large-scale renovation.