MENA - Consumer & Retail: 2Q26 Preview - Diverging Performances

Research evidence excerpt

MENA - Consumer & Retail: 2Q26 Preview - Diverging Performances

Idea

July 1, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (ADGM Branch)+MMENA - Consumer & Retail | Europe Rashad Kawan

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Preview - Diverging Rashad.Kawan@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +971 2 596-3603

Sarah Simon

Equity AnalystPerformances Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6064

We expect Q2 earnings season to demonstrate resilient top/ EEMEA - Consumer & Retail

Europe

bottom line across most players, with cost headwinds Industry View In-Line

increasingly coming into focus post Q2 amid still relatively What’s Changed

muted consumption. Companies with demonstrated pricing Jarir Marketing Co (4190.SE) From To

Price Target SAR 12.00 SAR 12.50

power positioned to outperform on a 12M view.

Recent relevant notes:

Key Takeaways • Spotted in Consumer: Strong Hajj & Eid Spend in

Saudi Bodes Well for Q2 Topline

For Q2, we expect beats at Jarir, Americana; see downside risk at eXtra, Al-Dawaa

• MENA - Consumer & Retail: Shifting Order of

On a 12M view, Savola and Almarai are our highest conviction Overweights in Preference; Upgrade Savola to Overweight

MENA Consumer; cautious on Jarir • Savola Group: Upgrade to Overweight

All-in, we expect cost headwinds to weigh on the sector more heavily from Q3, • MENA Conference Key Takeaways

with our 2027 EPS forecasts broadly below consensus

Earnings previews and forecasts relative to consensus inside

Q2 tactical positioning - but mindful of follow through. We expect a strong top/

bottom line beat at Jarir vs consensus as iPhone momentum is sustained through

Q2, despite inventory shortages earlier in the quarter. We think buyside

expectations, however, are more aligned, with the stock the best performer in MENA