Philippine consumer and retail sector

Research evidence excerpt

Philippine consumer and retail sector

Macquarie Equity Research

29 June 2026

Consumer Staples

ASEANPhilippine consumer and retail sector

Consumers wary, businesses upbeat

Karisa

Key Points Magpayo

• As expected, consumer sentiment weakened further in 2Q26, largely

due to the impact of the Middle East conflict.

• On the other hand, business confidence improved in May 2026. FigureConsumer1 - BSPOutlookSurvey:IndexOverall

• A sustained de-escalation remains key. We favour PGOLD and CNPF,

while JFC and WLCON come across as bottom-fishing opportunities. Index (%) Consumer Confidence Index

60.0

40.0

20.0

• Unsurprisingly, consumer sentiment deteriorated in 2Q26. The BSP's -20.00.0

latest (2Q26) Consumer Expectations Survey (CES, conducted on 6-18 -40.0-60.0

April 2026) shows that consumer outlook weakened for the current 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 2Q21 2Q22 2Q23 2Q24 2Q25 2Q26 quarter, next quarter and next 12 months.

Þ This was largely due to concerns over high fuel and food inflation Current quarter Next 3 months

due to the Middle East conflict. Additionally, as in the last two Next 12 months

surveys (here, here), government graft/corruption issues plus

Source: BSP, Macquarie Research, June 2026

insufficient government policies/programs to cushion the impact

of rising prices weighed on consumer sentiment.

Figure 2 - BSP Survey: Overall

Þ More bearish outlook was seen among consumers in and outside Business Outlook Index

Metro Manila, as well as across all income segments, as outlook for

family income and financial situations deteriorated. Index60.0 (%) Overall business outlook on the

50.0 macroeconomy Þ Consumers appear less inclined to buy big-ticket items in the next 12 40.0

months.