Lithium market update

Research evidence excerpt

Lithium market update

Flashnote

29 June 2026

Metals & Mining

Lithium market update Australia

A game theory dynamic emerges in lithium pricing

Austin Rob

Yun, CFA Stein

What's new

• Our channel checks indicate an increased likelihood of an accelerated Adam Gabriel

restart at CATL’s Jianxiawo project following the recent land-use pre- Baker Harlan

approval, although no formal announcement has been made. Our prior

base case assumed a late-3Q restart, with risk of delay into 4QCY26. The

potential for an earlier restart may explain the recent price weakness in

lithium equities. That said, uncertainty remains around the restart profile,

including whether it would involve reduced capacity or be subject to

additional operating conditions.

Why it matters

• We note that China GFE lithium carbonate (LC) futures recently briefly

broke below RMB150k/t, previously viewed as a support level, before

rebounding. Market positioning remains mixed, as reflected in elevated price

volatility:

Þ Bear case: Supply-demand dynamics are evolving, with near-term

supply recovery in sight. Prices are likely to trend towards cost-curve

support, which sits well below current spot levels of ~US$20,000/t LCE

(RMB148k/t). Our recent engagement with investors didn't indicate this

is the primary focus albeit this could change as we are 6 months into

CY26.

Þ Bull case: The final supply-side overhang may have cleared, shifting

focus to inventory movements which continues to decline. The scale

and effectiveness of restart capacity remain uncertain and may come

with a smaller number than market expectation. One could argue that

a sharp drop in LC prices could incentivise CATL to procure the material

from the spot market that would in return reduce the urgency of an

expedited restart ramp up.