SNDX/INCY: SNDX Is Offering A Free Lunch With The 4Q Axatilimab IPF Phase 2 Data; Here's How We Build Conviction Into The Event

Research evidence excerpt

SNDX/INCY: SNDX Is Offering A Free Lunch With The 4Q Axatilimab IPF Phase 2 Data; Here's How We Build Conviction Into The Event

Biotechnology June 28, 2026

Brad Canino

brad.canino@guggenheimpartners.com SNDX/INCY: SNDX Is Offering A Free Lunch With

212 823 6558 The 4Q Axatilimab IPF Phase 2 Data; Here's How We Michael Schmidt, Ph.D.

michael.schmidt@guggenheimpartners.com Build Conviction Into The Event

617 859 4636

Key Message: It's going to be pretty controversial when we suggest SNDX should

be awarded higher POS for the axatilimab (CSF-1R antibody) phase 2 IPF readout

Ticker Price Rating in 4Q. We see at least +50-60% upside potential for SNDX on a successful

INCY 113.75 Buy readout. Investors consistently tell us they have <30% POS expectations for the readout,

SNDX 21.31 Buy and we think SNDX's valuation only incorporates axatilimab cGVHD peak sales of

$500mm (worth ~$7-8/sh after the INCY profit split) and <$500mm in revumenib R/

R AML sales (see our valuation work from our initiation: LINK). This setup offers a

near-term asymmetric upside catalyst for SNDX; the stock currently has ~22% short

interest focused on the base business, but that is unlikely to be rewarded by any

material downside if IPF fails because investors are not valuing it today. Most IPF

studies fail, so it's easy to be skeptical of axatilimab. However, multiple research teams

now point to monocyte-derived macrophages as the specific aberrant cell that causes

fibrosis, and axatilimab's anti-CSF-1R mechanism is a very reasonable approach to

disrupt that pathology. We don't think prior failures of mechanisms targeting end-stage

fibrotic processes, which have overlapping and redundant escape pathways, should

be a generic risk applied to an upstream mechanism like axatilimab that targets a