ACI - I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For—The Edge Is Promising But Food Volumes Have Regressed; Lowering Estimates and Remain NEUTRAL-Rated

Research evidence excerpt

ACI - I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For—The Edge Is Promising But Food Volumes Have Regressed; Lowering Estimates and Remain NEUTRAL-Rated

July 24, 2026

John Heinbockel john.heinbockel@guggenheimpartners.com ACI - I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For

212 381 4135 —The Edge Is Promising But Food Volumes Have

Steven Forbes, CFA, CPA

steven.forbes@guggenheimpartners.com Regressed; Lowering Estimates and Remain

212 381 4188 NEUTRAL-Rated Julio Marquez

julio.marquez@guggenheimpartners.com

212 823 6605 Key Message: Yesterday’s 20% underperformance versus the S&P 500 was not as

Jacob Nivasch surprising as it appears considering the significant step-back in food volumes and nearly

jacob.nivasch@guggenheimpartners.com 10% EBITDA guide-down which calls into question the secular algo. Food, or unit,

212 338 8837 volumes are not only critical to expense leverage, but regression dampens confidence in

even a modest secular algo, resulting in a seeming “value trap”. As shown in Exhibit 1, the Max Horowitz

max.horowitz@guggenheimpartners.com shares still trade at roughly 4x 2026E EBITDA, despite the sell-off, as profit expectations

212 518 9974 were lowered by 8%, and investors struggle to underwrite a return to growth in 2027. We

have remained on the sidelines in search of evidence of progress on this front, but it has

been elusive and, though the new Edge initiative is promising, its impact is unclear in a

backdrop characterized by elevated fuel costs and increasing competition, so we stay

ACI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL-Rated.

Albertsons Companies, Inc. A Recently Rare, Broad-Based EBITDA Miss. Unlike recent quarters, when profitability Sector: Food Retail was generally protected in the face of top-line pressure, 1Q EBITDA materially missed our