TD Cowen Edge - June 26, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Edge - June 26, 2026

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TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

June 26, 2026 Sober View Suggests Structural Alcohol Risks

Are Overblown — Ahead Of The Curve

Seamus Cassidy THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1319

We believe the market is overstating alcohol's structural bear case. Our analysis of historical

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com

consumption patterns, demographic trends, and macro data indicates recent weakness is

Robert Moskow largely cyclical, reflecting post-pandemic normalization and affordability constraints. With

646 562 1474 valuations already baking in structural concerns, even modest volume stabilization could

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

support upside for alcohol stocks.

Victor Ma

646 562 1306 Our Thesis

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com

We believe alcohol’s downturn over the past few years primarily reflects a cyclical reset driven

Jacob Henry, CFA by post-COVID normalization and macro pressure on consumers. Our view is supported

646 562 1380 by alcohol’s stable share of non-durable goods spend, strong correlation with consumer

jacob.henry@tdsecurities.com sentiment, and historical recoveries following past demand shocks. This runs counter to the

prevailing market narrative that alcohol’s weakness reflects a structural reset, with factorsSergio Matsumoto

646 562 1339 such as moderation, cannabis, and GLP-1 adoption creating sustained category pressure.

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com We believe that alcohol demand will recover when macro pressures subside, but remain

cautious in the near term given ongoing economic headwinds. While there are some self-

help mechanisms that alcohol companies can employ in the meantime (e.g., marketing

investments, improved retail execution, innovation), we believe meaningful valuation upside