Barrels And BTUs - Commodity Fundamentals Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Barrels And BTUs - Commodity Fundamentals Weekly

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA WEEKLY REPORT

June 26, 2026

■Energy Producers Barrels And BTUs - Commodity Fundamentals

Weekly

Menno Hulshof, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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In this recurring weekly update, we summarize key valuation, fundamental supply, demand,

menno.hulshof@tdsecurities.com

storage, and pricing data for both oil and natural gas. For comparative valuation data, see

Aaron Bilkoski^ pages 3-7; for a rollup of weekly pricing data, see pages 8-9. For more detailed data, please

403 299 3294 see pages 10-21 for oil and pages 22-26 for natural gas.

aaron.bilkoski@tdsecurities.com

Aaron MacNeil, CA^ Fuel for Thought (Charts of the Week): SoH It Goes—Accelerated flows through the Strait of

403 292 1222 Hormuz overshadows bullish EIA Report

aaron.macneil@tdsecurities.com

US commercial crude inventories posted a 6.1 mmbbl draw last week (vs consensus of -3.6

Dustin Besaw, CFA^ mmbbl), while Cushing stocks fell to just under 19 mmbbl, below commonly cited minimum

403 292 2804

operating levels of ~20 mmbbl. However, the bullish print was overshadowed by a material

dustin.besaw@tdsecurities.com

easing of the geopolitical risk premium, with WTI briefly trading down below ~US$70/bbl as on

Taylor Kent^ again, off again flows through the SoH accelerated, weighing on the price of physical barrels

403 299 3272 and market sentiment, alike. As a result, we've seen a material flattening of the forward WTI

taylor.kent@tdsecurities.com curve (Exhibit 2), with 2027 WTI prices currently trading near US$67/bbl.

Jeremy De Souza, CPA^

Figure 1 - US Crude Oil Inventories

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jeremy.desouza@tdsecurities.com mmbbl 5-Year Range 5-Yr Avg 2025 2026

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Bloomberg, TD Cowen