2026 Consumer Conference Takes: AAL Flying High

Research evidence excerpt

2026 Consumer Conference Takes: AAL Flying High

USA | Airlines

American Airlines EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

TARGET CHANGE2026 Consumer Conference Takes: AAL Flying

RATING HOLDHigh

PRICE $16.08^

We hosted Devon May (CFO), Neil Russell (IR) & Abriell Jackson (IR) of AAL at

the Jefferies Consumer Conference in Nantucket. Key takes: 1) Demand firm PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $16.00 ($15.00) | -0%

w/ fares up 15-20% & monthly RASM improving sequentially on greater mix of 52W HIGH-LOW $16.59 - $10.09

post-fuel surge bookings; 2) Macro/AAL initiatives supportive of holding fare FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.4% | 1,530.68

increases seen YTD; 3) On our ests, each 5% reduction to 2027 jet fuel/gal MARKET CAP $10.6B

forecast is worth +85¢ or +50% to 2027 EPS base est of $1.75. TICKER AAL ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Recent Demand Trends. Demand trends remain solid w/ fares up 15-20% on only 1-2 pts of load

factor churn w/ potential for close-in to fill in the gaps. Mgmt believes the industry is in solid

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

positioning to hold fare gains given flattish industry capacity growth in Q3 (schedules -0.3% y-o-

2026 2027 2026 2027

y). Particular strength in corporate (Ex 1), Atlantic (15% of network), and short-haul LatAm (total

LatAm 14% of network). Mgmt continues to see premium leading, but main cabin is rebounding off REV* NA NA +1% -1%

easy 2025 compares. Q2 RASM is guided up ~10% (est inline) w/ monthly RASM improving due to EPS NA NA -51% -28%

greater mix of bookings post-Iran (~25% of Q2 booked pre-Iran). We est AAL will generate $63BB of

revs in 2026 on 10.6% RASM growth and capacity +3.7%, followed by RASM -0.7% in 2027. 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

EPS (0.40) (0.05) (0.30) 0.85 0.10