American Airlines Group: Record revenue and commercial execution stymied by fuel headwind

Research evidence excerpt

American Airlines Group: Record revenue and commercial execution stymied by fuel headwind

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy American Airlines 23 July 2026

Forecast Change

North America Group

United States

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 22 Jul 2026 (USD) 14.60

AAL.OQ AAL US NMS AAL

Price Target 25.00

Industrials

52-week range 18.49 - 10.18

Airlines

Record revenue and commercial

Valuation & Risks execution stymied by fuel headwind

Michael Linenberg

Record revenue offsets nearly half of fuel headwind Research Analyst

American reported record June quarter revenue, up 16.3% year-over-year, +1-212-250-9254

offsetting approximately half of a $2.2 billion fuel headwind when compared to

Shannon Doherty

company's outlook at the start of the year. Total unit revenue was up a solid 10.3% Research Analyst

on 5.4% ASM growth. Adjusted EPS was $0.15, with adjusted pretax income of +1-212-250-5935

$144 million and an adjusted pretax margin of 0.9%. Revenue strength was broad-

Angelina Zhao

based, with domestic PRASM up 10.6%, Atlantic up 8.9%, Pacific up 15.1%, and

Research Associate

Latin America up 6.6%. The company's revenue performance enabled it to

+1-212-250-9398

recapture nearly half of the incremental fuel expense, while CASM-ex increased a

relatively modest 2.9%.

Key changes

EPS (USD) 0.30 to -0.10 ↓ –

Overall, American's four commercial priorities continue to gain traction: 1)

62,670 to

elevating the customer experience through investments in premium seating, Revenue (USDm) ↑ 0.7%

63,084

lounges, and connectivity, including plans to install Starlink beginning in 2027 and

Source: Deutsche Bank

a 5-point year-over-year improvement in NPS; 2) growing global network and

scaling local share in key hubs; 3) driving premium revenue through improved