Hong Kong Real Estate Where we are in the cycle

Research evidence excerpt

Hong Kong Real Estate Where we are in the cycle

26 June 2026

Equities

REMD Hong Kong Real Estate

Where we are in the cycle Hong Kong

◆ The housing market continues to recover, despite a Raymond Liu*, CFA

sentiment overhang from enhanced cross-border oversight Analyst, Asia Real Estate and Conglomerates The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

raymond.w.m.liu@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Developers appear to be shifting their focus from volume to +852 2996 6743

margin, alongside the ongoing inventory destocking process Michelle Kwok*

Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Among developers, we like SHK Properties, Henderson michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk

Land, and Sino Land, all rated Buy +852 2996 6918

Ganesh Siva*

Associate

We discussed the Hong Kong property market on 26 June with Mr Gordon Tse (senior Bangalore

director of corporate development), Mr Buggle Lau (consultant) and Mr Benny Sham

(property research analyst) of Midland Holding. Our key takeaways are as follows. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Insights from the ground. Property prices have been recovering well, rebounding

c.17% from the 2025 low (YTD: +10%). Transaction activity has been improving in

both primary and secondary markets. According to Midland, 2026 primary

transactions are expected to rise 15% y/y to ~23k units, while secondary transactions

are forecast to reach a five-year high (+19% y/y). While investors are increasingly

concerned about the potential impact of enhanced cross border regulations, their

data suggest the risks to the property market could be manageable, as individual