Hong Kong Residential Property Home prices already hit our full-year target; momentum may slow in 2H

Research evidence excerpt

Hong Kong Residential Property Home prices already hit our full-year target; momentum may slow in 2H

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

23 June 2026

Hong Kong Residential Property

Home prices already hit our full-year target; momentum

may slow in 2H

Year-to-date, the secondary home price index has rebounded 10.4% (or +17.9% Mainland China/Hong Kong Property

from the trough), which is stronger than expected and has already reached our full- & Conglomerates

year forecast of 10-15% for 2026. While we maintain this forecast, this implies Karl Chan AC

home price growth may slow to <5% in 2H26. While the two key overhangs (852) 2800-8513

(capital outflow control & rate hike concerns) have been well discussed, we karl.chan@jpmorgan.com

believe the biggest downside risk is actually a prolonged weakness of the HK Venus Choi

stock market, which has historically shown a strong correlation to HK home (852) 2800-8599

prices (typically with a 3-6 month lag). Fortunately, other sector fundamentals (e.g. venus.choi@jpmorgan.com

inventory, rental growth, population) are still intact, and thus for now we forecast Jocelyn Gao

(852) 2800-8529

slower home price growth but the upcycle will still continue. However, if the jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com

Hang Seng Index stays weak for an extended period, home prices could come under J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

pressure. In the near term, we stay defensive on our stock picks and prefer CKA Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

& Sino, while NWD/Henderson may underperform. For SHKP, on dips we’d

accumulate the stock, although its year-to-date outperformance (+21% vs. HSI -

7%) leaves it vulnerable to near-term profit-taking.

• High-frequency data is turning more mixed: While the weekly secondary