Rates down, stocks down

Research evidence excerpt

Rates down, stocks down

Equity Research - 30 June 2026 07:10 CEST

Constr. & Real Estate

• Weak sector (-6% last month), despite improving fundamentals

• Letting will be more positive in Q2e than in Q1

• Sagax up to BUY (Hold) Altra, Castellum, Catena, Cibus, Emilshus,

Intea, Logistea, NP3, Pandox, Prisma,

SEK funding surprisingly stable Sagax (up from HOLD), SLP, Stendörren

Following an easing of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices, the

Swedish 5Y swap rate has dropped from >3% to <2.5%. The Swedish

Riksbank raised its rate path slightly at its June meeting but is still below

the implied RIBA curve, which points to 1–2 hikes N24m. We raise our

sector average CEPS estimates by ~2% in 2026e-2027e on lower long-

term rates in combination with M&A.

Atrium Ljungberg, Balder, Diös,

Hufvudstaden, K2A, KlaraBo, WihlborgsPositive outlook comments in Q2e, but numbers will be mixed

In Q2, we believe the companies will talk about stronger underlying

demand than in Q1 (hurt by geopolitical uncertainty), but aggregated

numbers might not fully support this for everyone. Atrium Ljungberg (with

six quarters in a row of negative underlying net letting excluding projects)

will likely post a figure close to zero. For Castellum, net letting will be Fabege, Platzer, Wallenstam

supported by the Ericsson lease, but a cancellation from AFRY (coming

in Q2 or Q3) may more than offset this. Fabege will post a large negative

net letting figure (Max Matthiessen of -SEK 45m and potentially Telenor

with -40m). Hufvudstaden does not provide any reasonable outlook, Diös'

net letting will be positive on the Länsstyrelsen lease, Platzer's net letting

should be positive (10-20m) on the announced lease of the old Nordea

premises, and Wihlborgs should return to a positive number. The company