Cholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Cholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

Update

June 28, 2026 07:41 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MCholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd | Asia Subramanian Iyer

Pacific Equity Analyst

Subramanian.Iyer@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2234

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Cholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd (CHLA.NS) From To

Price Target Rs1,580.00 Rs1,720.00

Cholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd (CHLA.NS,

Bull Case Rs2,370.00 Rs2,575.00

CIFC IS)

Base Case Rs1,610.00 Rs1,750.00

Bear Case Rs935.00 Rs1,015.00 India Financials | India

Updated Components Stock Rating Equal-weight

EPS Industry View Attractive

Price target Rs1,720.00

Investment Thesis

Shr price, close (Jun 25, 2026) Rs1,799.20

Bull Base Bear Scenarios 52-Week Range Rs1,831.50-1,299.40

Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Risk Reward for Cholamandalam Investment and Fin Co Ltd EPS (Rs)** 61.63 70.70 93.97 116.10

Prior EPS (Rs)** - 67.43 89.69 112.25

(CHLA.NS) has been updated

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Reason for change ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We had cut earnings estimates across our coverage lenders in April on rising crude

oil prices and geopolitical tensions. We now raise our forecasts as the operating

environment has improved (lower crude oil prices, cease-fire in Middle East conflict).

We still remain watchful of the evolving geopolitical situation as well as monsoon

progress in India (affected by El-Nino conditions).

We raise our EPS estimates by 4.8% for both F27 and F28, and by 3.4% for F29,

mainly on higher loan growth and lower credit costs. We increase our F26-29 AUM

CAGR assumption to ~20% from ~19%. We cut F27-28 credit cost forecasts to