Retail/restaurant sector: 2026 capital policies

Research evidence excerpt

Retail/restaurant sector: 2026 capital policies

24 June 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Retail / Retailing

Industry Overview

Retail & restaurant sector investment strategy (June 2026)

ACT WITH EXTRA VISION

Since 2023, we have published update reports on capital policy trends in

the retail and restaurant sector annually in June. As in our previous X-Ray

reports, here we look at the distribution of low-PBR stocks and summarize

Senior Analyst: the latest trends in capital policies by subsector, and also introduce some

individual company trends as case studies. As industry reorganizationToshio Takahashi

+81 3 6202 8325 accelerates, the extent to which companies are efficiently utilizing capital

toshio.takahashi@mizuho-sc.com has become increasingly important. As a positive change, we highlight the

growing number of companies disclosing ROE and shareholder returnsSenior Analyst: targets within their medium-term plans (MTPs). That said, many sectorHideya Asaeda firms have still not disclosed capital policies, and we view the gap between+81 3 6202 8598

companies in terms of capital policy and shareholder returns as an issue.hideya.asaeda@mizuho-sc.com

KNOW: Preview of 1Q FY26 results

Retail and restaurant sector results for 1Q FY26 (Mar–May or Apr–Jun) are

likely to show positive OP growth for an 18th consecutive quarter. From

March through May, sales of seasonal of products have been firm thanks

to favorable weather (including record-high temperatures) and demand

associated with people starting schooling and jobs at the beginning of the

academic/fiscal year, particularly for durable goods. The impact of higher

electricity rates and other costs stemming from the Middle East situation is

likely to have been limited in 1Q. We expect to see OP growth in almost